After questioning how a crowded first quarter may effect PC games sales (and maybe even the future viability of the platform), I predict which titles will thrive in the mad rush and which will get crushed underfoot.
So. The first three months of 2011 leave consumers spoilt for choice and there's an intense likelihood that no matter what you game on, you won't be picking up everything that dares to score a metacritic 8.5 or less until you can rent it, buy it second hand, or buy it first-hand off a shopkeeper who has had to sell his hands to subsidise the ridiculously low RRP you're happy to hand over. Anyway, here's a handy, completely opinion based guide to who will sink and swim on PC unless something gets shaken up, ordered from top to bottom in chance of survival. Just like the decks of the Titanic.
 |  |  |
Portal 2
Even if this game wasn't the sequel to the critically acclaimed original (or the sequel to a game that made gamers sick of cake references regardless of whether they'd played it or not) the grip Valve has over the PC Games market is such that Portal 2 can't help but succeed. Steam front-pages will be dominated by monolithic advertisements, every schoolchild will get a second copy of the Source back-catalogue and crucially, Team Fortress 2 will gain at least one new hat.
Deus Ex: Human Revolution
Add something as seemingly insignificant as health regeneration to your Deus Ex game and expect to get one hell of a negative response. The franchise is a sacred pillar of PC gaming and this alone has made the release a safe bet. Better still, the way Eidos Montreal has dealt with this and less petty criticism has displayed not just good PR sense, but a genuine understanding of the series' high points and a desire to improve upon them, not merely repeat them. How it will perform as a console title is a little cloudier, but supposing that the PC players of a decade ago aren't among the console masses now is a very unsafe assumption anyway. It's worth remembering too (though yes, painful for some) that both console dynasties have had a Deus Ex before. Playstation devotees will doubtlessly be supposed the richer.
Dragon Age 2
Bioware command barrels of respect among PC gamers, and any misgivings over the occasionally generic looking Dragon Age IP are offset by the prospect of a Mass Effect 2-esque presentation shake up. It's perhaps true that the coming changes are as much a way of bringing the console versions up to the PC version's higher spec, but Bioware can be assured of a great deal of faithful repeat custom on this one.
Crysis 2
If the promise of the setting and general refinement of what was already a very solid shooter fail to deliver, there may be enough vanity sales generated through graphics card benchmarking tests to keep Crytek's offering afloat. On the other hand, the original game was a slow burner (partly because it was so graphically taxing) and even despite the positive critical reaction to the original, PC Gamers proved their usual opinionated selves. And then there's the wider picture: with such an action heavy first quarter, are console owners going to care about this urban shooter sequel and its phantom limb?
 |  |  |
Dead Space 2
Dead Space was at one time supposed by its own bosses as a long-term money maker, rather than an instant success. But the interest the sequel appears to be generating has delivered on this promise. Aside from the PS3 version's tangle with Mass Effect 2, the game also has the benefit of being at the vanguard of these releases. Barring some major disaster, I fully expect Dead Space 2 to be one of the successes of Quarter 1. The problem lies with the PC version. Or at least, when we consider that it was touch and go for a while whether there would be a PC version, it must be assumed that even a slightly duff performance could spell the end of the line.
Bulletstorm and Homefront
We know nothing whatsoever about the quality of any of the titles in this list, but somehow, when it comes to new IP, the market knows even less. Bulletstorm can probably expect a degree of brand loyalty on Xbox 360, but I suspect PC Gamers' goodwill for the Epic Games brand expired around the time they wandered back from the big consoleland buffet with only the lukewarm doggy-bag that was Unreal Tournament 3. To be successful titles on the consoles during this quarter of death, these games will have to be special. On the PC, they're going to have to be exceptional.
F.3.A.R.
Whereas Deus Ex: Human Revolution has been fighting a tooth and nail PR battle to bring disillusioned fans back to a PC stalwart in the wake of an unpopular second instalment, F.3.A.R. just seems to be playing the same sorry tune with an occasional by-line in odd discordant giant mech trailers. And how out of touch do you have to be to drop a leetspeak three in your title? Oh wait, I'm asking this of a game still using a trope from The Ring. Silly me.
On the bright side, numbers here will probably convince WB Games to put this franchise to sleep altogether, but there's no telling what shoddy PC sales may be held up to prove later on.
 |  |  |
Others:
Driver: San Francisco pretty much has a genre to itself, so we can hope that it will be judged by its own merits. Well, assuming that genres carry equal weight which they really, really don't. Also key here will be what kind of digital rights management that Ubisoft saddle the game with, something that will also be true of Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood. Fable 3 will make it belatedly to PC also, unnecessarily busying up a schedule it wasn't originally in. What it loses to Dragon Age 2 it will make back simply by being a known quantity: successful but not exceptional.
Releasing anything else? A sincere care-package of good luck to you. You may need it.
No comments:
Post a Comment