Sunday, 7 November 2010

Quarter 1 2011, or Too Much Of A Good Thing

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The holidays are coming, but don't expect any new toys until the new year...

Why, hello again...

It's the run up to Christmas once more, and that can only mean one thing: all those big-name titles you've been waiting for all year suddenly hove into view, a convoy of hope to a nation crippled by X-Factor finals. Your mother phones you for gift ideas and you send her a list of items number five through eight on your prioritised wishlist, because you know that you can bare waiting two months to play them. You sad, impatient person.

Nope, sorry. That's your biscuit-tin Christmas of yesteryear. For the second year running, the convoy of hope has recieved word that the Call of Duty juggernaut is on the same tarmac, and rather than tangle with its incomprehensible callsigns and impressive wheelspan, they've pulled over into the Welcome Break to enjoy some tepid tea and a crossword. Four down, eight letters. "Quaint British English semi-expletive". Bollocks.


Q4 2010
Oct
Medal of Honor
Pro Evolution Soccer 2011
Fallout: New Vegas
Star Wars; The Force Unleashed
NBA 2K11

Nov
James Bond: Blood Stone
Call of Duty: Black Ops
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part One
Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit
Tron Evolution

Dec
World of Warcraft: Catacylsm

Sometime Q4
Gran Turismo 5
Q1 2011
Jan
Dead Space 2
Littlebigplanet
Mass Effect 2 (PS3)

Feb
Portal 2
Bulletstorm
Deus Ex 3
Killzone 3

March
Dragon Age 2
Crysis 2
F.E.A.R. 3
Homefront

Sometime Q1
Driver: San Francisco

Now look at this sample of games coming out in the next two quarters. Not a complete picture by any means (Nintendo Waa?), but it illustrates the point: what's going on here? Why are so many big action sequels deserting the Christmas sales period, leaving Call of Duty alone to digest a whole lot of turkey whilst sports titles and movie franchises entertain themselves in the hallway? Yes, Call of Duty's hold on the market is intimidating but the situation publishers are building for themselves in the first three months of 2011 isn't any better by any stretch of the imagination. Out of the frying pan and into the OH GOD IT BURNS.

But the biggest loser here? The PC. The majority of titles I've cherry picked above are multiplatform ones. The decisions are ultimately made with the console market in mind, with the PC version dragged along for the ride. Whilst I believe that the numbers will be down across the board due to the Q1 dumping ground, the PC alone simply doesn't have the kind of userbase to absorb such a deluge of content. Console games are often a lot better at sustaining their RRP, whereas new PC releases can enter budget price-points with the passing of a single season (though the extent to which this is counteracted by the stronger second hand and rental markets on consoles is a valid counterpoint).

In conclusion, the PC versions of some of these under-performing titles could well return some absolutely abysmal numbers, making only small change in the long run. We're talking the level of cataclysmic failure that could be offered up to prove that PC versions aren't worth the risk, and all because of some daft scheduling. Yes there's a summer wind-down, but this doesn't mean everything has to be released in winter and early spring. The developers of two of this year's biggest PC releases - Starcraft 2 and Civilization V – reckoned that quarters two and three weren't entirely toxic to successful game releases and yes, they were completely right about it. If this means delaying PC releases for some games, perhaps it really is better in the long run? (hell, most multiplatform games could use some extra time to ship a better PC version).

Rather than throw all 1,500 words of the planned article at you, part two will follow tomorrow evening. In part two, I counter-productively single out doomed titles and arrange their premature husks into some kind of vantage point from which to shout 'I told you so' for no noble reason.

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